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SoybeansBrazil Soybeans, November 2026: Fast Planting, Heavy China Demand and Softer Premiums
Key takeaways
- AgRural had Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting at 40% on Oct 22, ahead of last year's 36%. That is a good sign for an early February export window.
- CONAB forecasts 181.6 Mt and the USDA's October WASDE 186.0 Mt, so both agencies see another very large Brazilian crop.
- China imported a record 111.7 Mt in 2025/26. Brazil supplied 90% of September arrivals, and US soybeans remain outside the tariff relief.
- CBOT January soybeans settled at $12.34¼/bu on Oct 30. Paranaguá premiums fell to +$1.00/bu for January, and the curve slopes down toward new crop.
- For buyers: favor Feb–Apr new-crop CIF Santos cargoes over expensive old-crop beans, and lock in premium and freight early on part of the volume.
Planting is running ahead, and that matters for February loadings
Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop is going into the ground faster than last year. Consultancy AgRural put national planting at 40% of the expected area as of October 22, a 14-point jump in a single week and ahead of the 36% recorded at the same point last season (AgRural via Portal do Agronegócio). Drier weather let growers in the South and Mato Grosso do Sul get back into the fields, while returning rains helped parts of the Cerrado.
CONAB's first survey of the season, which used progress data from early October, already showed Mato Grosso at 25.2% planted and Paraná at 36% (CONAB first 2026/27 survey). Mato Grosso is the state that matters most for buyers: its early-planted beans are the first to be harvested in January and the first to reach the export terminals.
For a CIF buyer, an early planting season is the single best predictor of an early harvest and an early export window. It does not guarantee anything, because the weeks of pod fill in December and January still decide yields, but it shifts the odds toward comfortable availability for February loading out of Santos.
CONAB and USDA both see a crop above 180 million tonnes
CONAB's first 2026/27 estimate puts Brazilian soybean production at 181.6 million tonnes, up 0.7% from the previous crop, on planted area of 49.3 million hectares (+1.4%). It also projects soybean exports of 117.97 million tonnes (CONAB).
The USDA's October WASDE is more bullish on supply. It left Brazil's 2026/27 crop at 186.0 million tonnes and exports at 118.0 million tonnes, both unchanged from September, against 180.5 million tonnes produced in 2025/26 (USDA WASDE, October 9, 2026). The same report lifted world 2026/27 production to 442.7 million tonnes.
The gap between the two agencies, roughly 4 million tonnes, is normal this early. What matters for importers is that neither agency sees a short crop. With two large Brazilian harvests back to back, the supply side does not argue for paying up today for cargoes that load in the second quarter.
China: record buying, but a split between Brazilian and US beans
Chinese customs data show 11.88 million tonnes of soybean imports in September 2026, which brought the October–September marketing year to a record 111.7 million tonnes (Dim Sums, citing China customs). The September figure was 7.7% below a year earlier, after very heavy arrivals in mid-year (Agrilinkage).
Brazil supplied about 90% of China's September imports, or 10.7 million tonnes, while US beans contributed only 361,000 tonnes. Over the full 2025/26 year, Brazil shipped 84.5 million tonnes to China, a 75.6% share (Dim Sums). For 2026/27, the USDA sees China's imports rising again to 115 million tonnes (WASDE).
US–China trade is back in play, but in a lopsided way. State buyers resumed US purchases in mid-October, yet soybeans were excluded from the tariff reductions proposed after the September Trump–Xi summit. That keeps private Chinese crushers leaning toward Brazil (AgroLatam, October 14). The same report put China's US purchases at about 13.7 million tonnes before that week, against a 25-million-tonne target cited by the White House.
Prices and Paranaguá premiums are both easing
CBOT January soybeans settled at $12.34¼ per bushel on October 30, 2026, down 34¼ cents on the week, with soybean meal at a two-month low (AgroLatam, October 30 close). Since September 30 the market has given back about 5.7% (Farms.com).
Brazilian port premiums softened at the same time. Quotes for Paranaguá on October 30 stood at +$1.40/bu for November, +$1.30 for December and +$1.00 for January, down from +$1.55, +$1.50 and +$1.30 a week earlier (Notícias Agrícolas). Our own rough arithmetic puts January FOB near $490 per tonne before freight.
The shape of that premium curve is the key point. Each month further out is cheaper, which is the market pricing in the arrival of the new crop. Santos usually trades close to Paranaguá, though each terminal's line-up can open a gap.
Export pace: a pause before the new-crop surge
Exporters' association ANEC trimmed its October soybean export estimate to 6.15 million tonnes, from 6.40 million a week earlier and about 245,000 tonnes below October 2025. Soybean meal shipments, by contrast, are seen up about 763,000 tonnes year on year at 2.49 million tonnes (ANEC via Reuters / Notícias Agrícolas).
This is the seasonal low point for Brazilian bean shipments, as old-crop stocks run down. Lighter October and November line-ups often mean easier berth access for the cargoes that are still moving. That window closes once the new crop starts flowing in late January.
At Dossix International Trade Inc, most of the buyer questions Abe Dinkel is fielding right now are about new-crop timing rather than old-crop availability. That is the right instinct for this point in the season.
Dossix trader's view
Don't chase old-crop beans for November–December shipment unless you need them. Premiums are at their highest at the front of the curve, and the curve is already pointing lower. The better value is in new-crop February–April CIF cargoes from Santos. Our approach at Dossix International Trade Inc is to fix the premium and freight now on part of the volume, then price the futures leg into weakness, since CBOT is falling under harvest pressure. Keep the rest open until the January crop picture is clearer. A buyer for a bulk vessel of 12,500 tonnes or more who wants a firm new-crop offer should open the LOI conversation in November; that is early enough to secure good laycan before the first-quarter rush. — Abe Dinkel, Commodities Trader
FAQ
How far along is Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting?
AgRural estimated 40% of the planned area was planted by October 22, 2026, versus 36% a year earlier. Early planting usually means an earlier harvest and earlier export availability.
How big will Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop be?
CONAB's first estimate is 181.6 million tonnes, and the USDA's October 2026 WASDE puts it at 186.0 million tonnes. Both are forecasts and will change with weather through January.
Is China still buying more Brazilian soybeans than US soybeans?
Yes. Brazil supplied about 90% of China's September 2026 imports. State buyers have resumed US purchases, but soybeans were left out of the post-summit tariff reductions, which keeps private crushers focused on Brazil.
When should I book a CIF Santos soybean cargo?
For February–April loading, November and December are a sensible time to start the LOI and offer process and to fix freight and premium on part of the volume. Old-crop cargoes for this year carry the highest premiums on the curve.
What are Brazilian soybean port premiums right now?
On October 30, 2026, Paranaguá premiums were quoted at +$1.40/bu for November, +$1.30 for December and +$1.00 for January over CBOT futures, all lower than a week earlier.
Sources
- Conab estima safra de grãos 2026/27 acima de 367 milhões de toneladas — Agência Gov / CONAB (Oct 15, 2026)
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, October 9, 2026 — USDA
- Plantio da soja chega a 40% no Brasil e supera ritmo do ano passado, aponta AgRural — Portal do Agronegócio (Oct 28, 2026)
- China's Soy Imports Hit MY Record 111.7 MMT — Dim Sums (Oct 20, 2026)
- China Soybean Imports Fall 7.7% in September 2026 — Agrilinkage
- China Returns to U.S. Soybeans With Major Purchases After Trump-Xi Summit — AgroLatam (Oct 14, 2026)
- Chicago Grain Futures Close Lower as Corn Hits Four-Month Low — AgroLatam (Oct 30, 2026)
- Soybeans Commodity Update for the Week Ending Oct 30, 2026 — Farms.com
- Prêmio Soja Paranaguá/PR — Notícias Agrícolas
- Anec reduz previsão de exportação de milho e soja do Brasil em outubro — Reuters via Notícias Agrícolas (Oct 27, 2026)