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Brazil's Sugar Export Pace Slows and the Port Line-up Shrinks: What It Means for CIF Cargoes Loading December to February

By Abe Dinkel, Commodities Trader, Dossix International Trade Inc · November 6, 2026 · 6 min read

The line-up has halved from last year

The most practical number for a CIF sugar buyer is the ship line-up: vessels already at anchor, waiting off the port, or due to arrive and load. In the week ending November 4, maritime agency Williams counted 42 vessels waiting to load 1.505 million tonnes of sugar at Brazilian ports, against 1.884 million tonnes the week before. The report covers ships expected through December 4.

Santos carries most of it, with 1,046,240 tonnes scheduled. Paranaguá follows with 324,230 tonnes, then Recife (56,486 t), Suape (47,000 t) and Maceió (31,500 t), according to the same Safras & Mercado summary of the Williams report.

Compare that with the same point in 2025. In the week to October 22 last year, Williams listed 86 ships and 3.391 million tonnes, including 2,112,864 tonnes at Santos and 778,201 tonnes at Paranaguá. Two weeks before this latest report, in the week to October 21, 2026, the count was already down to 49 ships and 1.713 million tonnes. The queue has roughly halved in a year, and it is still shrinking.

What is in the queue: overwhelmingly VHP

By grade, the latest line-up is 1,244,060 tonnes of VHP, 124,330 tonnes of crystal B-150, 64,000 tonnes of bagged VHP, 70,000 tonnes of refined A45 and 20,000 tonnes of TBC. In other words, about four of every five tonnes waiting are bulk raw sugar bound for refineries.

For buyers of white sugar, the refined A45 figure is the one to watch. It stood at 97,000 tonnes in the week to October 21 and has eased to 70,000 tonnes since. ICUMSA 45 is a small, bagged or containerised slice of Brazil's export flow, and it does not move in step with the bulk VHP fleet. Its timing depends on refinery output and bagging capacity at the mill, not on berth space at the bulk terminals.

October exports: slower pace, lower prices

The Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) publishes running monthly totals. After 11 working days of October, Brazil had shipped 1,738,405 tonnes of sugar, a daily average of 158,037 tonnes, 16.5% below the 189,241 tonnes a day shipped in October 2025. The average export price was US$337.20 per tonne, down 14.3% from US$393.30 a year earlier.

Revenue fell faster than volume. Ministry figures to the fourth week of October showed sugar and molasses exports of US$784.89 million, or US$49.05 million per working day against US$74.43 million in October 2025, a drop of 34.09%. The full-month October figures had not appeared in the reports we checked when this article was written, so we use the partial numbers here.

The trend predates October. Secex data showed 2.699 million tonnes of sugar and molasses exported in September, down 16.8% from 3.244 million tonnes a year earlier, and 20.637 million tonnes for January–September, 11.8% below the same period of 2025. For context, October 2025 was a strong month: 4.205 million tonnes, up 12.8% on October 2024. Year-on-year comparisons this month start from a high base.

Why the ports are quiet: supply, not logistics

A short queue can mean weak buying or thin supply. This year the evidence points to supply. Rabobank, cited by Safras & Mercado on November 6, notes that Centre-South sugar output to the end of September was 28.9 million tonnes, against 33.5 million tonnes a year earlier, after unusual rains hit crushing, the sugar mix and cane yields.

Demand for Brazilian raws has not gone away. StoneX expects Brazil's share of world raw sugar exports to rise to 73% in 2026/27, from 68% the previous season, as weaker crops in the EU and Thailand cut competing supply. It sees Thailand's export availability falling by about 2 million tonnes, and notes this could favour Brazilian VHP for refining. Buyers are still coming to Brazil, but mills have less sugar to sell for prompt loading.

Freight and price backdrop

Dry-bulk freight is not adding pressure for now. On November 4 the Baltic Exchange's Supramax index fell to 1,835 points, its lowest since October 13, while Panamax average daily earnings were US$17,049, as reported by Reuters. Supramax and Panamax are the vessel classes commonly used for bulk sugar.

Futures have also come off. On November 4, ICE raw sugar for March 2027 settled at 18.47 US cents per pound, and London white sugar for December 2026 at US$497.50 per tonne. Analysts quoted in the same report cited heavier Indian supply as a weight on prices.

What this means for a December–February CIF booking

A short line-up has a real upside: a vessel nominated now should wait less at Santos than in the congested seasons, which helps demurrage and laycan planning. The risk is availability. With mills producing less sugar, a seller that cannot show a specific allocation and loading window may struggle to deliver December–February tonnage on time.

In practice, we suggest four steps. Confirm the grade first: VHP dominates the bulk queue, while ICUMSA 45 moves in much smaller volumes. Ask for the load port and terminal in writing, and a laycan linked to the seller's actual allocation. Watch the weekly line-up: if it starts rising again into December, berth times at Santos may lengthen. Finally, price CIF with today's softer freight in mind, but agree in the contract who bears demurrage if the queue builds.

Dossix trader's view

Abe Dinkel's take: When the queue at Santos is this short, the bottleneck is not the port, it is the mill. For December–February cargoes, I would rather have a confirmed allocation, a named terminal and a realistic laycan than a sharp price with no loading slot behind it. Dossix works directly with end buyers, so we can quote against real availability and walk you through the load-port documents before you open an instrument. If you are planning VHP or ICUMSA 45 for the first quarter, it is better to start the conversation now, while the line-up is light, than in January when everyone is chasing the same tonnage.