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China's Sugar Imports in 2026: A Shrinking Quota Market Where Brazil Still Supplies 87% of the Raw Sugar

By Abe Dinkel, Commodities Trader, Dossix International Trade Inc · November 6, 2026 · 7 min read

Why China matters to a Brazilian sugar seller

China is one of the few import markets big enough to move the Brazilian raw sugar trade on its own, and almost all of what it buys is raw cane sugar for coastal refineries. That makes it a key outlet for VHP, and much less of one for white sugar. Three things set how much China actually buys: a fixed tariff-rate quota, a licence system for anything above it, and the size of the domestic beet and cane crop.

The picture for 2026 is a shrinking market. Customs figures, China's agriculture ministry and the US Department of Agriculture's Guangzhou office all point to fewer imports in the 2026/27 season (October–September). Brazil still supplies most of what does come in.

The rules: quota, out-of-quota duty and licences

China's sugar import regime has not changed in structure. According to the USDA FAS Sugar Annual for China (April 2026), the in-quota tariff is 15% on a quota of 1.945 million tonnes, roughly 70% of which goes to state-owned enterprises. Sugar imported outside the quota pays 50%. Since July 2020, all out-of-quota sugar has also needed an automatic import licence, which importers apply for before shipping. USDA notes that "the timeline for granting import permits can be inconsistent."

The Ministry of Commerce's 2026 quota allocation rules confirm the 1.945 Mt total and the 70% state-trading share. Quota allocated as state trading must be imported through a state trading enterprise, and the holder may only import on its own if that enterprise has not signed a contract by August 15. Unused quota also changes hands: MOFCOM published its list of companies proposed for the 2026 quota reallocation on September 24, 2026.

Licences are where policy tightens. The Blooming trade-data analysis of November 5, 2026 says out-of-quota licences for 2025/26 were issued in two batches totalling less than 1.4 million tonnes, roughly half the previous year. USDA's October 2026 Sugar Semi-Annual adds that industry experts expect Beijing to keep limiting out-of-quota permits in 2026/27 to protect farmers.

Syrups and premixes, the old way around the quota, are being squeezed as well. In USDA's October report, China's imports of sugar syrup and premixed powder (HS 1702.90 and 2106.906) are expected to fall 25% in 2025/26 to 1.05 Mt, equal to about 840,000 t of raw sugar. Imports under HS 2106.906 fell by 192,500 t year on year in July–August 2026 alone.

What customs data shows for 2026

China's General Administration of Customs reported imports of 260,000 tonnes of sugar in September 2026, down 290,000 t on a year earlier, according to the Sina Finance / Msweet report of October 18, 2026. A research note from Maike Futures (October 22, 2026) says that was the lowest September since 2018, made up of 221,300 t of raw sugar and 34,400 t of white.

January–September imports totalled 2.51 Mt, down 660,000 t year on year. Of that, 2.30 Mt was raw sugar and 205,700 t white. Over the full 2025/26 crop year to September, imports came to 4.29 Mt, 340,000 t less than the year before, according to the same customs-based report. Blooming's own tally of the crop year is slightly lower, at 4.27 Mt, down 7.46%.

Prices were low too. The Maike note puts the average CIF value of September imports at 2,627 yuan per tonne, the lowest for the month since 2020, and the January–September average at 2,685 yuan per tonne.

Brazil's share

Brazil's grip on the raw sugar trade is close to total. Of the 2.30 Mt of raw sugar China imported in January–September 2026, 1.99 Mt (87%) came from Brazil. El Salvador (135,600 t) and Nicaragua (70,000 t) were a distant second and third, and September's raw arrivals were "almost entirely" Brazilian, according to Maike Futures. Over the 2025/26 crop year, Blooming counts 3.64 Mt from Brazil, down 8.31% but still 85.17% of China's total sugar imports.

White sugar is a different story. The 205,700 t of whites imported in January–September came mainly from South Korea (80,500 t) and Thailand (79,000 t). Brazil sent just 1,400 t, according to the same data.

The pipeline is thin. Citing Brazil's foreign trade data, Maike reports Brazilian raw sugar shipments to China of 240,300 t in August 2026, down 597,500 t on the year, and 331,600 t in September. Both months were the lowest for the period since 2020, which suggests Chinese arrivals will stay relatively low for the next one to two months.

2026/27: a bigger crop and three import forecasts

All three forecasts expect China to grow more of its own sugar, but they disagree widely on imports. The October CASDE balance sheet from the agriculture ministry puts 2025/26 output at 12.95 Mt, up 1.79 Mt, and forecasts 12.93 Mt for 2026/27, with imports of 4.80 Mt against consumption of 15.73 Mt. CASDE also raised its 2026/27 range for world sugar prices to 16.5–21.5 US cents per pound, citing drought losses in India, Thailand and the EU and a lower sugar mix in Brazil.

USDA is more bullish on China's crop. Its Semi-Annual forecasts 2026/27 production at 13.37 Mt, with more cane in Guangxi and more imported Myanmar and Laos cane milled in Yunnan, and imports of 3.8 Mt (3.5 Mt raw, 0.3 Mt refined). It sees stocks rising to 4.58 Mt. Blooming goes lower still, at about 2.8 Mt, arguing that out-of-quota imports will "run at a deep loss throughout the year."

The gap between 2.8 Mt and 4.8 Mt is roughly the out-of-quota trade. The 1.945 Mt quota is the floor everyone expects to be used. What sits on top of it depends on licences and on whether world raw prices fall far enough below Chinese domestic prices to pay a 50% duty.

What it means for VHP and white sugar sellers and buyers

For VHP, China remains a quota-driven buyer rather than an open market. The steady business is in-quota and runs mainly through state trading channels and the refiners that hold allocations. The extra volume beyond that comes in bursts, when licences are issued and the arbitrage opens. A rising share of raw sugar also arrives into bonded warehouses first: 951,700 t of the 2.30 Mt imported in January–September, per Maike. Importers can hold that sugar until domestic prices justify clearing it.

For ICUMSA 45 and other whites, China is a niche market, and Brazil barely features in it. Buyers elsewhere in Asia, the Middle East and Africa should note one point: fewer Brazilian raw cargoes heading to China can mean more Brazilian sugar looking for other homes. How much depends on the Centre-South mix and on India and Thailand.

Dossix trader's view

Abe Dinkel's take: China is the clearest example of a buyer whose demand is written in policy, not just price. If you are a Chinese refiner with quota, Brazilian VHP is still your natural feedstock. Lock specs (pol, colour, moisture) and laycan early, because cargoes bought in a quota window tend to be bought at the same time as everyone else's. If you need out-of-quota volume, do not sign a CIF contract until the licence is in hand: USDA itself warns the timing is inconsistent. And if you are a white sugar buyer outside China, keep an eye on China's monthly customs figures. When China steps back, Brazilian sugar does not disappear, it looks for other destinations, and that is usually when a direct buyer can negotiate.